Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage

Internacional FC de Palmira

12
Lost

Internacional de Bogota

The model leans Internacional FC de Palmira at 50%. Expected goals: Internacional FC de Palmira 1.63, Internacional de Bogota 1.04. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%. Internacional FC de Palmira won 1 of their last 4; Internacional de Bogota won 2 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Internacional FC de Palmira50%2.00
XDraw27%3.70
2Internacional de Bogota23%4.35

Pick: Internacional FC de Palmira. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.63 – 1.04
LineOverUnder
1.575%25%
2.550%50%
3.528%72%
Both teams to scoreYes52%No48%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.7%
  • 1011.3%
  • 219.6%
  • 209.2%
  • 017.2%
  • 006.9%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 17% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Internacional FC de Palmira −0.5
Internacional FC de Palmira lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.527%73%
-127%24%49%
-0.551%49%
051%25%24%
+0.576%24%
+176%15%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.