Corinthians
Chapecoense
The model leans Corinthians at 51%. Expected goals: Corinthians 1.64, Chapecoense 0.74. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Brazil| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Corinthians | 58% | 1.73 | 1.37 | 68% | −10 |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.76 | 4.50 | 21% | +6 |
| 2Chapecoense | 16% | 6.44 | 8.00 | 12% | +4 |
Pick: Corinthians. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 7,169 matches, fitted Aug 31. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.64 – 0.74 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–015.2%16.7%
- 2–012.5%16.7%
- 1–111.2%11.8%
- 0–09.2%10.0%
- 2–19.2%11.1%
- 0–16.8%–
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Corinthians −1| Corinthians line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Brazil| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Corinthians -1.25 | 38% | 2.67 | 1.95 | 49% | −12 |
| Asian handicap | Chapecoense +1.25 | 62% | 1.60 | 1.90 | 51% | +12 |
| Draw no bet | Corinthians | 79% | 1.27 | 1.11 | 85% | −7 |
| Draw no bet | Chapecoense | 21% | 4.73 | 6.50 | 15% | +7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.37 | 2.20 | 42% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 58% | 1.73 | 1.62 | 58% | 0 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.