Remo
v
Pending
Coritiba
The model leans Remo at 41%. Expected goals: Remo 1.45, Coritiba 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil45
29
26
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Remo | 45% | 2.23 | 2.01 | 47% | −2 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.46 | 3.30 | 28% | 0 |
| 2Coritiba | 26% | 3.82 | 3.80 | 25% | +2 |
Pick: Remo. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.45 – 1.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–08.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Remo −0.5| Remo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 24% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 26% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.