Bahia
v
Pending
Internacional
The model leans Bahia at 50%. Expected goals: Bahia 1.94, Internacional 1.33. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil51
24
25
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bahia | 51% | 1.97 | 1.76 | 53% | −3 |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.16 | 3.60 | 26% | −2 |
| 2Internacional | 25% | 3.95 | 4.50 | 21% | +5 |
Pick: Bahia. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.94 – 1.33| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.3%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.5%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 57% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bahia −0.5| Bahia line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 22% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 22% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 15% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.