São Paulo
v
Pending
Bragantino
The model leans São Paulo at 40%. Expected goals: São Paulo 1.53, Bragantino 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil43
28
29
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1São Paulo | 43% | 2.31 | 2.45 | 38% | +5 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.62 | 3.30 | 28% | −1 |
| 2Bragantino | 29% | 3.43 | 2.85 | 33% | −4 |
Pick: São Paulo. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.53 – 1.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–27.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: São Paulo −0.5| São Paulo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 25% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 18% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.