Flamengo
v
Pending
Botafogo RJ
The model leans Flamengo at 61%. Expected goals: Flamengo 2.53, Botafogo RJ 0.98. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 58%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil70
18
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Flamengo | 70% | 1.42 | 1.33 | 70% | 0 |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.56 | 5.00 | 19% | −1 |
| 2Botafogo RJ | 12% | 8.49 | 8.50 | 11% | +1 |
Pick: Flamengo. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.53 – 0.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–08.1%
- 3–17.9%
- 1–07.6%
- 1–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Flamengo −1.5| Flamengo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| -1 | 49% | 22% | 29% |
| -0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| 0 | 71% | 17% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 8% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.