Fluminense
v
Void
Remo
The model leans Fluminense at 51%. Expected goals: Fluminense 1.81, Remo 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil57
25
18
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fluminense | 57% | 1.77 | 1.49 | 63% | −6 |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.98 | 3.75 | 25% | 0 |
| 2Remo | 18% | 5.45 | 7.50 | 12% | +6 |
Pick: Fluminense. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.81 – 0.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.5%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.4%
- 3–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fluminense −1| Fluminense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.