Athletico Paranaense
Red Bull Bragantino
The model leans Athletico Paranaense at 42%. Expected goals: Athletico Paranaense 1.40, Red Bull Bragantino 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Athletico Paranaense | 45% | 2.20 | 1.96 | 48% | −3 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.38 | 3.30 | 28% | +1 |
| 2Red Bull Bragantino | 25% | 4.01 | 4.00 | 24% | +1 |
Pick: Athletico Paranaense. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.40 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.1%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Athletico Paranaense −0.5| Athletico Paranaense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.