Flamengo
v
Pending
Mirassol
The model leans Flamengo at 57%. Expected goals: Flamengo 2.09, Mirassol 0.83. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 50%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Brazil66
22
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Flamengo | 66% | 1.53 | 1.22 | 77% | −11 |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.64 | 6.25 | 15% | +7 |
| 2Mirassol | 13% | 7.75 | 11.00 | 9% | +4 |
Pick: Flamengo. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.09 – 0.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.8%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.4%
- 3–08.2%
- 3–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Flamengo −1| Flamengo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| -0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| 0 | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 10% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.