Predictions · Serbian Super Liga · outside model coverage
Partizan Beograd
1–2
Lost
FK IMT Beograd
The model leans Partizan Beograd at 52%. Expected goals: Partizan Beograd 1.75, FK IMT Beograd 0.79. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match59
25
16
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Partizan Beograd | 59% | 1.69 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.93 | – | – | – |
| 2FK IMT Beograd | 16% | 6.45 | – | – | – |
Pick: Partizan Beograd. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.75 – 0.79| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.8%
- 2–012.1%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.9%
- 3–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Partizan Beograd −1| Partizan Beograd line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.