Predictions · Serbian Super Liga · outside model coverage
Zeleznicar Pancevo
2–1
Won
Radnicki Nis
The model leans Zeleznicar Pancevo at 51%. Expected goals: Zeleznicar Pancevo 1.51, Radnicki Nis 0.70. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 59%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match56
28
16
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Zeleznicar Pancevo | 56% | 1.80 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Radnicki Nis | 16% | 6.18 | – | – | – |
Pick: Zeleznicar Pancevo. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.51 – 0.70| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.5%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–010.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Zeleznicar Pancevo −0.5| Zeleznicar Pancevo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 13% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.