Barcelona SC
Guayaquil City
The model leans Barcelona SC at 51%. Expected goals: Barcelona SC 1.48, Guayaquil City 0.67. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 61%. Barcelona SC won 2 of their last 6; Guayaquil City won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barcelona SC | 56% | 1.80 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.48 | – | – | – |
| 2Guayaquil City | 16% | 6.41 | – | – | – |
Pick: Barcelona SC. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.48 – 0.67| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.3%
- 2–012.8%
- 0–011.8%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–17.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Barcelona SC −0.5| Barcelona SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 27% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 12% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.