Famalicão
v
Pending
Gil Vicente
The model leans Famalicão at 44%. Expected goals: Famalicão 1.32, Gil Vicente 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 59%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default48
31
21
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Famalicão | 48% | 2.10 | 1.91 | 49% | −1 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.22 | 3.20 | 29% | +2 |
| 2Gil Vicente | 21% | 4.69 | 4.10 | 23% | −1 |
Pick: Famalicão. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 0.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.9%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–012.1%
- 2–010.5%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–18.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Famalicão −0.5| Famalicão line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 26% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 16% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.