Predictions · LaLiga2 · outside model coverage
Mallorca
3–0
Won
AD Ceuta FC
The model leans Mallorca at 53%. Expected goals: Mallorca 1.88, AD Ceuta FC 0.91. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match59
24
17
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mallorca | 59% | 1.69 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.14 | – | – | – |
| 2AD Ceuta FC | 17% | 6.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Mallorca. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.88 – 0.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.5%
- 2–010.9%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.8%
- 3–16.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Mallorca −1| Mallorca line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 25% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.