Predictions · LaLiga2 · outside model coverage
AD Ceuta FC
0–2
Won
Las Palmas
The model leans Las Palmas at 39%. Expected goals: AD Ceuta FC 1.01, Las Palmas 1.30. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match28
31
42
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AD Ceuta FC | 28% | 3.60 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.27 | – | – | – |
| 2Las Palmas | 42% | 2.40 | – | – | – |
Pick: Las Palmas. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.01 – 1.30| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%
- 0–112.9%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–28.4%
- 0–28.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AD Ceuta FC 0| AD Ceuta FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 18% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.