Remo
Flamengo
The model leans Flamengo at 50%. Expected goals: Remo 1.19, Flamengo 1.82. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Brazil| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Remo | 24% | 4.19 | 7.00 | 13% | +11 |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.97 | 4.20 | 22% | +3 |
| 2Flamengo | 51% | 1.96 | 1.45 | 64% | −13 |
Pick: Flamengo. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 7,169 matches, fitted Aug 31. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.19 – 1.82 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–110.7%12.5%
- 1–29.7%11.8%
- 0–19.0%14.3%
- 0–28.2%14.3%
- 2–16.4%–
- 1–05.9%5.9%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Flamengo −0.5| Remo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 15% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 23% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Brazil| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Remo +1.25 | 67% | 1.49 | 1.80 | 53% | +14 |
| Asian handicap | Flamengo -1.25 | 33% | 3.04 | 2.05 | 47% | −14 |
| Draw no bet | Remo | 32% | 3.14 | 5.50 | 17% | +15 |
| Draw no bet | Flamengo | 68% | 1.47 | 1.14 | 83% | −15 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 | 1.95 | 48% | +10 |
| Both teams to score | No | 42% | 2.39 | 1.80 | 52% | −10 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.