RB Bragantino
Bahia
The model leans RB Bragantino at 50%. Expected goals: RB Bragantino 1.94, Bahia 1.21. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Brazil| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1RB Bragantino | 53% | 1.87 | 2.05 | 46% | +7 |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.15 | 3.50 | 27% | −3 |
| 2Bahia | 23% | 4.43 | 3.50 | 27% | −4 |
Pick: RB Bragantino. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.94 – 1.21| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–110.1%15.4%
- 2–19.8%11.1%
- 1–08.4%11.8%
- 2–08.1%9.1%
- 3–16.3%–
- 1–26.1%8.3%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: RB Bragantino −0.5| RB Bragantino line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 23% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 14% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Brazil| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | RB Bragantino -0.25 | 61% | 1.64 | 1.80 | 53% | +8 |
| Asian handicap | Bahia +0.25 | 39% | 2.57 | 2.05 | 47% | −8 |
| Draw no bet | RB Bragantino | 70% | 1.42 | 1.50 | 63% | +8 |
| Draw no bet | Bahia | 30% | 3.37 | 2.50 | 38% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 | 1.67 | 56% | +4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 40% | 2.50 | 2.10 | 44% | −4 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.