Grêmio
v
Pending
Chapecoense AF
The model leans Grêmio at 53%. Expected goals: Grêmio 1.97, Chapecoense AF 0.92. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil61
23
16
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Grêmio | 61% | 1.65 | 1.53 | 61% | 0 |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.30 | 3.90 | 24% | −1 |
| 2Chapecoense AF | 16% | 6.27 | 6.25 | 15% | +1 |
Pick: Grêmio. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.97 – 0.92| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.0%
- 2–010.8%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.1%
- 3–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Grêmio −1| Grêmio line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 24% | 38% |
| -0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| 0 | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.