Internacional
v
Void
Remo
The model leans Internacional at 50%. Expected goals: Internacional 1.83, Remo 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil49
25
26
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Internacional | 49% | 2.03 | 1.49 | 64% | −14 |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.01 | 4.33 | 22% | +3 |
| 2Remo | 26% | 3.87 | 6.50 | 15% | +11 |
Pick: Internacional. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.83 – 1.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.7%
- 2–26.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Internacional −0.5| Internacional line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 22% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.