Atletico MG
v
Void
Gremio
The model leans Atletico MG at 42%. Expected goals: Atletico MG 1.49, Gremio 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil45
28
26
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atletico MG | 45% | 2.21 | 1.81 | 52% | −6 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.53 | 3.40 | 28% | +1 |
| 2Gremio | 26% | 3.80 | 4.50 | 21% | +6 |
Pick: Atletico MG. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.49 – 1.09| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–18.3%
- 0–07.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atletico MG −0.5| Atletico MG line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 23% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 26% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.