Predictions · Cup Preliminary Round · outside model coverage
Niki Volou
0–0
Lost
Panionios
The model leans Niki Volou at 39%. Expected goals: Niki Volou 0.94, Panionios 0.58. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 72%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match42
38
20
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Niki Volou | 42% | 2.40 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Panionios | 20% | 4.90 | – | – | – |
Pick: Niki Volou. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.94 – 0.58| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 80% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 93% |
| Both teams to score | Yes27% | No73% |
Most likely scores
- 0–021.9%
- 1–020.6%
- 0–112.6%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–15.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Niki Volou −0.5| Niki Volou line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 27% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 35% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 16% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.