Predictions · Cyprus League · outside model coverage
Karmiotissa
0–3
Won
Pafos FC
The model leans Pafos FC at 55%. Expected goals: Karmiotissa 0.82, Pafos FC 2.02. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 50%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match22
64
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Karmiotissa | 13% | 7.47 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.48 | – | – | – |
| 2Pafos FC | 64% | 1.55 | – | – | – |
Pick: Pafos FC. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.82 – 2.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 0–211.9%
- 0–111.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–38.0%
- 1–36.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Pafos FC −1| Karmiotissa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 10% | 86% |
| -0.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| 0 | 14% | 20% | 65% |
| +0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| +1 | 35% | 25% | 41% |
| +1.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.