Predictions · Regionalliga Bayern · outside model coverage
FC Schweinfurt
2–2
Lost
1860 München
The model leans 1860 München at 50%. Expected goals: FC Schweinfurt 1.14, 1860 München 1.84. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match23
25
52
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Schweinfurt | 23% | 4.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
| 21860 München | 52% | 1.91 | – | – | – |
Pick: 1860 München. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.14 – 1.84| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–28.6%
- 2–16.1%
- 1–36.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: 1860 München −0.5| FC Schweinfurt line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 14% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 23% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 23% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.