Predictions · 3. Liga · outside model coverage
Alemannia Aachen
4–1
Won
SC Verl
The model leans Alemannia Aachen at 39%. Expected goals: Alemannia Aachen 1.93, SC Verl 1.78. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 72%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match41
23
35
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Alemannia Aachen | 41% | 2.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.31 | – | – | – |
| 2SC Verl | 35% | 2.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: Alemannia Aachen. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.93 – 1.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| Both teams to score | Yes71% | No29% |
Most likely scores
- 1–18.4%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.2%
- 1–04.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Alemannia Aachen 0| Alemannia Aachen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 19% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 22% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 18% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.