Predictions · Coppa Italia · outside model coverage
Catanzaro
2–2
Lost
Südtirol
The model leans Catanzaro at 53%. Expected goals: Catanzaro 1.87, Südtirol 0.84. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match61
24
15
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Catanzaro | 61% | 1.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.16 | – | – | – |
| 2Südtirol | 15% | 6.57 | – | – | – |
Pick: Catanzaro. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.87 – 0.84| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.4%
- 2–011.6%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.3%
- 0–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 43% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Catanzaro −1| Catanzaro line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 25% | 38% |
| -0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| 0 | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.