Bragantino
v
Void
Grêmio
The model leans Bragantino at 44%. Expected goals: Bragantino 1.61, Grêmio 1.12. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil48
27
25
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bragantino | 48% | 2.10 | 1.53 | 61% | −13 |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.69 | 3.90 | 24% | +3 |
| 2Grêmio | 25% | 3.97 | 6.00 | 16% | +10 |
Pick: Bragantino. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.61 – 1.12| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–26.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 46% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bragantino −0.5| Bragantino line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 23% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.