Predictions · Serie D · outside model coverage
Goiatuba
v
Pending
São José-RS
The model leans Draw at 29%. Expected goals: Goiatuba 0.96, São José-RS 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 62%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match34
35
31
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Goiatuba | 34% | 2.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.87 | – | – | – |
| 2São José-RS | 31% | 3.22 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.96 – 0.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 0–015.5%
- 1–014.9%
- 0–114.0%
- 1–113.5%
- 2–07.2%
- 2–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Goiatuba 0| Goiatuba line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 22% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 32% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 21% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.