Predictions · Venezuela Primera División · outside model coverage
Caracas
v
Pending
Portuguesa FC
The model leans Caracas at 33%. Expected goals: Caracas 1.23, Portuguesa FC 1.16. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match36
30
33
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Caracas | 36% | 2.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.30 | – | – | – |
| 2Portuguesa FC | 33% | 3.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Caracas. Calibrated probability 33% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.23 – 1.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–110.6%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–27.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Caracas 0| Caracas line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 21% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 28% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 20% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.